Villanova comes up short against Depaul

Depaul 84 - Villanova 76

Box Score

The DePaul Blue Demons took the lead with their first posession of the ball game and never looked back last night in Chicago. Depaul (5-7, 1-0 BE) got contributions across the board with notable performances from Draelon Burns, Karron Clarke and oft injured 5th Year Senior Wesley Green. The Blue Demons constantly took advantage of Villanova's sub par perimeter defense and overall out played the Wildcats.

Villanova creeped back in the second half, making Wildcat fans and even the ESPN announcers think this was the second coming of the LSU game. Once Malcolm Grant hit the floor with 8 minutes remaining I was convinced we had LSU Part2 on our hands. Unfortunately that was not the case as Villanova made costly mistakes in the final minutes and handed DePaul it's first win over a top 25 team this season.

Notable Player Evaluations:

Corey Fisher: Corey was the only player who could find his shot last night going for a career high 23 points on 4 of 10 from deep. Fisher looked determined on the floor and was trying as hard as he could to get the win for us, unfortunately we came up short. He had some great cross over moves, a fantastic 3 point bank shot off an in bounds play and some nice floaters in the lane. Corey posted an EFF rating of 18.000 and an EFF/M of .6000, way above his season average. Great game for Corey.

Dante Cunningham: Dante has a new aura of intensity and determination that he hasnt had in the past 2 seasons when it comes to finishing around the hole, blocking shots and rebounding. I love what he is doing this season. He was an absolute beast for Villanova last night and played with a fire that no one else aside from Fisher played with. Dante had two of the nastiest blocks that I have ever seen from him, if you click the ESPN box score you'll see one of them, I think it got replayed on ESPN about 5 times during the game. There was one instance where he got the rebound and went up strong for the lay in and got fouled, you could hear him screaming "LETS GO!" at his team mates. Loved that. 16 points, 5 rebounds and 2 incredible blocks with an EFF of 16.000 and .5333 EFF/M. Keep up the good work Dante!

Antonio Pena: Pena had a nice game in the minutes he played, but he was plagued by foul trouble guarding the much bigger Wesley Green. We needed him out there more, he was our next best option to defend Green inside and he was putting together a nice game before his 4th foul. Overall we saw some nice post moves from Antonio, solid rebounding and he hit all of his foul shots. 8 points, 4 rebounds in 16 minutes (just as my previous article suggested) to go along with a nice block that caused a shot clock violation. 10.000EFF and .6250 EFF/M.

Scottie Reynolds: Scottie was bothered all night by DePaul's physical defense and length. He just couldn't seem to get enough space for his jumper and missed some lay ins that he usually makes. Overall a poor game from Scottie with 4 turnovers and 4 of 12 shooting. He will bounce back, I have no worries about him. 4.000 EFF and .1250 EFF/M. Lets hope he bounces back against Pitt, we're going to need him!

Reggie Redding: Reggie had a very nice game in his Will Sheridan esque "glue guy" role. He led the team in rebounding and steals and made all of his foul shots. I liked the way Reggie drove the ball and attacked DePaul's big men so that he could get to the line. He made one really silly turnover in front of the bench, not sure what happened there. I think we are seeing why he gets so many minutes, he does the little things and seems to have a high basketball IQ. 9 points, 6 rebounds, 1 assist,2 steals and 5-5 from the line to post a 15.000EFF and .5769 EFF/M for the evening well above his season average. Nice game for Redding.

Team Evaluation: Overall we just could not hit a shot and played sloppy with the ball. We got outrebounded, out hustled and outplayed by an always physical DePaul team. This was the first test for a team that has not experienced the Big East yet so I wouldn't be too worried, DePaul looks like they will be able to battle in the Big East. Hopefully Jay can motivate the troops and we can give them a payback game on Jan. 16th at the Pavillion. We posted a team EFF of 75.000 way below our season average while DePaul posted an EFF of 95.000, well above even our season average. Lets hope the young guys learn from this and bring it against Pitt this weekend.

Player Efficiency:
1.) Corey Fisher - 18.000 EFF - .6000 EFF/M
2.) Dante Cunningham - 16.000 EFF - .5333 EFF/M
3.) Reggie Redding - 15.000 EFF - .5769 EFF/M
4.) Antonio Pena - 10.000 EFF - .6250 EFF/M
5.) Dwayne Anderson - 7.000 EFF - .4667 EFF/M
6.) Shane Clark - 5.000 EFF - .1923 EFF/M
7.) Scottie Reynolds - 4.000 EFF - .1250 EFF/M
8.) Malcolm Grant - 2.000 EFF - .1250 EFF/M
9.) Corey Stokes - 0.000 EFF - 0.000 EFF/M

Other Notes: ESPN's broadcasting team was horrendous. They called Jay Wright "Jamie Wright", somehow thought Villanova was good at inbounds plays (if you're a Nova fan you know this is a big problem for us) and used the same phrases and anecdotes over and over again. The broadcast was not an enjoyable one for more reasons than Nova losing, if I ever hear Doris Burke say, "hes a live body", again I'm going to go crazy, she must've said it about 15 times during the game about the same 2 players.

Lets "Wright the ship" and show Pitt what we're really made of.

Player Feature: Antonio Pena: The Next Curtis Sumpter?

Antonio Pena - Forward - #0 - RS Freshman

Ht: 6'8
Wt: 235lbs
From: Brooklyn, NY
School: St. Thomas More (CT)
Key Stats: 5.3ppg - 2.8rpg in 11mpg - .4923EFF/M (4th on Team)

Background: Antonio Pena comes to Villanova from St. Thomas More in Connecticut where he prepped after a ballyhooded career at Lincoln Highschool in Brookyln, NY. While at Lincoln High, Pena was a key player on the famed Sebastian Telfair teams. He has a several cameos in the movie "Through the Fire" in various game highlights where he can be seen dunking the ball on the fast break wearing #41. He was listed as the #75 overall prospect in the 2006 graduating class and given a 4 star recruit ranking by Rivals.com

Villanova: Pena came into Villanova in August of 2006 and it was decided that he would be redshirted after he experienced a nagging minor knee injury that required surgery. He took the redshirt year to expand his game and get even stronger than he already was. The redshirt year paid off.

Pena began the 2007-2008 season a bit shaky but in the month of December he posted averages of 8.7 ppg and 3.7 rpg in 15mpg shooting 61% from the field. These numbers have translated into great efficiency ratings for the month of December: 10.000 EFF and .6742 EFF/M (just behind team EFF/M leader Casiem Drummond) . His minutes should increase significantly with the extended loss of Villanova's starting Center Casiem Drummond. So far this season Pena has shown great finishing ability, constantly dunking the ball whenever he is even close to the rim, something that Villanova has not had in recent seasons. I absolutely love Pena's post game and Coach Wright is beginning to showcase his skills more as evidenced by the various post up plays called for Pena in the LaSalle game. Pena is a do it all type combo forward in the Curtis Sumpter or Ryan Gomes mold and his contributions will be key to the success of this season's team.

Comparisons: I have been looking at Pena's stats closely this season and decided to compare them to Curtis Sumpter's freshman year to get a feel for how well he is progressing. I plan to keep this comparison going throughout Big East play (I will update this article periodically). So far the comparison is quite telling:

Sumpter's Freshman Year:
31 Games: 6.2PPG, 4.12 RPG on 43% from the field 6.806 EFF .3588 EFF/M

Pena's Freshman Year:
11 Games Overall: 5.3 PPG 2.8RPG 5.818EFF .4923 EFF/M
For 6 Games in December: 8.7PPG, 3.7RPG 61% and 10.000EFF .6742 EFF/M

Pena is actually more efficient thus far than Curtis Sumpter was as a freshman, if he keeps his play up he has a chance to be a great forward during his career here.

Season Stat Projections: Pena has been very good in limited minutes thus far and he figures to pick up many of the front court minutes that were left behind by Casiem Drummond 's injury in addition to his usual role of backing up Dante Cunningham. Based on this I expect Pena to get about 17-20 minutes per game and continue his highly efficient play. He is currently scoring .4818 points per minute and grabbing .2545 rebounds per minute based on his season stats. Using this we can project his contributions to be near 8.1ppg and 4.3 rpg in 17+ minutes per game for the rest of the season while keeping his efficiency toward the top of the team rankings.

Comparing our Players with the Nation's Best

I've decided to take my NBA EFF results from yesterday's blog to see how the Villanova Starters stack up with a selected group of exceptional players throughout the Big East and the NCAA to give us an idea of what the EFF quotient means in comparing players.

EFF Leaders

• Tyler Hansbrough - 25.714


• L. Harangody - 21.083


• Earl Clark - 17.846


• OJ. Mayo - 16.917


• Roy Hibbert - 16.273


• Jonny Flynn - 16.273


• Shane Clark VU - 15.700
  
• Wayne Ellington - 15.500


• Scottie Reynolds VU - 15.455


• Derrick Rose - 15.182


• Levance Fields - 14.583


• Dante Cunningham - 14.364


• Casiem Drummond VU - 12.622


• Gerald Henderson - 12.364


• Corey Fisher VU - 11.222


• Chris Lofton - 10.692


• Reggie Redding VU - 9.091
  

EFF/M Leaders

1. Tyler Hansbrough - .8676
   
2. L. Harangody - .8161


3. R. Hibbert - .7047


4. Casiem Drummond VU - .6799


5. Shane Clark VU - .5509


6. Wayne Ellington - .5332


7. Gerald Henderson - .5231


8. Derrick Rose - .5138


9. Levance Fields - .5058


10. Earl Clark - .5058
    
11. Jonny Flynn - .5044


12. Dante Cunningham VU - .4802


13. OJ. Mayo - .4721
    
14. Dom. James - .4596


15. Scottie Reynolds VU - .4545


16. Corey Fisher VU - .4191


17. Chris Lofton - .3819


18. Reggie Redding VU - .3597

This gives a good bearing of where our guys fit in with big name players throughout the NCAA in terms of how efficient they are on the court. Tyler Hansbrough's out of this world 25+ EFF rating is something that few NBA players even have. Based off of this comparison I would say our star players stack up quite well against some of the best talent in college basketball today. Anyone curious as to what Tyreke Evans EFF stats will be next year? We can only hope.

Villanova vs. DePaul Game Preview

Villanova Wildcats vs. DePaul Blue Demons


Thursday January 3rd 9PM ESPN2

Per Game Statistics
(Villanova Advantage in Green)

Points	80.5	75
Rebounds	37.9	36.8
Assists	16.2	15.3
Steals	8.4	7.9
Blocks	3.1	3.5
FGA	60.2	61.4
FGM	27.9	27.09
FG%	46%	44%
FTA	24.27	20.9
FTM	16.63	13.1
Turn Overs	13.1	13.18
Record	10-1	4-7
EFF	93.060	83.210

The Villanova Wildcats will travel to DePaul University to open BigEast play tomorrow evening at 9PM on ESPN2. DePaul came to the Pavillion early last season and handed the Wildcats a crushing defeat, but with that defeat came the break out game from then Freshman Guard Scottie Reynolds. Reynolds hit shots from all over the floor in that contest and gave Wildcat fans a taste of what was to come. Hopefully DePaul's zone defense will allow Villanova to get another break out type game for a Freshman in Corey Stokes.

This year the two teams look vastly different but Wildcat fans should remember the Blue Demon's leading scorer 6-4 Guard Draelon Burns. Burns is averaging 19 points and 3.7 rebounds in his senior season while shooting 36.6% from deep. Expect Reggie Redding and Shane Clark to take turns defending burns with Corey Stokes serving as their backup. 6-10 Freshman Center Mac Koshwal ancors the middle for the Blue Demons averaging 11 points and 8 rebounds in 31mpg He should be a tough defensive assignment for Dante Cunningham and Antonio Pena, both players must stay out of foul trouble and attack the rim early and often to get the big guy out of the game. As for other players of note the Blue Demons have 6-6 Senior Forward Karron Clarke shooting 43% from three point range. This should be the number one thing on Villanova's scouting report, hopefully the Cats can bother Clarke by throwing Redding, Clark and Cunningham at him on the perimeter at any given time, shutting down the three will be very important for the Cats, the Blue Demons shoot 35% from that distance as a team.

Depaul holds their opponents to 78.5 points per game while only scoring 75 themselves while the Wildcats have been scoring 80.5 per game and giving up just over 68.3 points. Villanova also boasts a team EFF of 93.060, 10 points greater than DePauls 82.210, clearly meaning Villanova is the statistically superior team. DePaul's team is very young and should struggle against the pressing and trapping defense employed by Villanova which will lead to turnovers and easy buckets for the 'Cats. Defending the three and keeping our front court players out of foul trouble will be key to starting the Big East season 1-0. Given that DePaul has struggled all season I would expect Villanova to come out victorious if they can play solid defense. Expect Scottie Reynolds to remember what he did against DePaul last season and light the Blue Demons up on their home floor.

Predicted outcome:
Villanova 85 - Depaul 74
Leading Scorer: Reynolds - 25
Leading Rebounder: Cunningham - 10
Leading Assist man: Fisher - 5
Breakout Game: Stokes - 12 points (4-7 3pt)

Player Efficiency Ratings and Other Sortable Stats

The NBA evaluates players based on the EFF quotient calculated by ((Points + Rebounds + Assists + Steals + Blocks) - ((Field Goals Att. - Field Goals Made) + (Free Throws Att. - Free Throws Made) + Turnovers) / Games). This is a pretty simple yet accurate way to evaluate how effective a player is on the court. I decided to take this formula and apply it to Villanova, focusing on the 10 players who receive the most minutes to see how well it translates. Here are some conclusions to ponder...(I'll link my stat sheet when it is finished). Obviously statistics can only go far, but its pretty intersting stuff.

Shane Clark is Villanova's most efficient player based on the NBA EFF Formula. He has a EFF rating of 15.700 11 games into the season.

1. Shane Clark - 15.700
   
2. Scottie Reynolds - 15.455
   
3. Dante Cunningham - 14.364


4. Casiem Drummond - 12.622
   
5. Corey Fisher - 11.222


6. Reggie Redding - 9.091


7. Malcolm Grant - 6.273


8. Antonio Pena - 5.818


9. Dwayne Anderson - 5.000


10. Corey Stokes - 3.364
    

For reference I calculated the EFF for Jason Fraser in 2004-2005, Randy Foye, Allan Ray and Kyle Lowry in 2005-2006 and Mike Nardi, Will Sheridan and Curtis Sumpter in 2006-2007 and Scottie Reynolds in Big East Play in 2006-2007. Foye is the clear leader as he is one of the most complete players to wear a Villanova Uniform.

1. Randy Foye - 18.272


2. Curtis Sumpter - 16.968


3. Kyle Lowry - 14.121
   
4. Allan Ray - 13.312


5. Scottie Reynolds - 11.500
   
6. Mike Nardi - 11.000


7. Will Sheridan - 9.515


8. Jason Fraser - 8.464
   

I didn't like the way the formula failed to account for minutes played so I took the EFF results and divided it by the minutes per game average for each player to determine who makes the most of their minutes to get EFF/M. The results were pretty telling. (Note: Corey Fisher's first collegiate game where he only played 4 minutes was omitted because I felt it did not accurately represent his contributions to the team)

The Team's leader in EFF/M is Casiem Drummond, not surprising because of his ability to grab a ton of rebounds and finish easy lay ups in under 20 minutes per game. It'll be interesting to keep track of where Dwayne Anderson's EFF/M rating goes if his minutes increase in Big East play while Drummond is out.

1. Casiem Drummond - .6779


2. Dwayne Anderson - .6383
   
3. Shane Clark - .5509


4. Antonio Pena - .4923
5. Dante Cunningham - .4802


6. Scottie Reynolds - .4545


7. Corey Fisher - .4191


8. Malcolm Grant - .3966


9. Reggie Redding - .3597


10. Corey Stokes - .2227

For comparison here is the EFF/M for the same Villanova Alums listed above

1. Curtis Sumpter - .5569


2. Randy Foye - .5265


3. Allan Ray - .4152


4. Kyle Lowry - .4069


5. Jason Fraser - .3996


6. Mike Nardi - .3700


7. Will Sheridan - .3694


8. Scottie Reynolds - .3465

So far the Team EFF/M is .4448, (done by taking these 10 player's stats combined). This is quite close to the EFF/M rating for Scottie Reynolds, the team's leader in points and assists and the guy who basically dictates the Villanova Offense. Here are some other key points. (Last Year Reynolds' EFF was 12.455 with a .4207 EFF/M, Reynolds has improved his overall game by 3 EFF Points, a pretty big jump)

Some may be surprised that Malcolm Grant is so low on this list as he has been considered the "microwave" for this team. Grant has shown great 3 point shooting ability this season and incredible confidence for a freshman, but he has really failed to do much else on the floor that shows up in the box score aside from some flashy assists. This low rating shouldn't take away from the overall impact he has had on the team and shows that statistics can only go so far.

Another interesting question that arises out of these findings is: Should Reggie Redding be playing as many minutes as he does when he comes in 2nd to last in the EFF/M rankings? Coach Wright attributes Reddings minutes to solid passing (2.0 apg), rebounding ability (3.7 rebounds/game for a 6'5 guard is very nice) and excellent defensive ability (which the EFF Formula doesn't take into account very well). Redding's EFF/M and overall EFF are very close to that of Will Sheridan, another defensive minded role player who got a lot of minutes from Coach Wright. Redding, just like Sheridan, does very well in the attitude statistics that the team keeps track of, thus why he is on the court for 25 minutes each night.

LaSalle Game Notes

Villanova 71 - LaSalle 58

Player Notes:

• Antonio Pena has some great moves in the post. He posted modest numbers but you needed to be at the game to understand his impact and why he impressed me. He went 2-6 from the field but should've been 5-6. Jay was calling plays for him to get him the ball down low and he did a great job getting to the rim with a variety of fakes and drop step hook shot moves. His first basket was off a great post up where he took his man in with a few dribbles and up faked and snuck in for the lay up. Pena is beginning to remind me of Sumpter's post game a bit, but he is far stronger, has more creative spin moves and takes a lot of baby hooks. There were 2 plays in particular where he absolutely leveled his defender with his strength. His missed shots all just rolled out except for one that was just short. I maintain my opinion that he will be a great forward Villanova during his career, the skills are there and hes putting it together on defense. Pena, Cunningham and Drummond at the 4 and the 5 is as strong a front court as we've had in a while.



• Dante Cunningham is a monster on the boards and is actually finishing his lay ups as of late. He has had double figure rebounding in 4 of the past 5 and his post game is improving, he showed some nice moves tonight for easy lay ins. He has really improved his ability to seal his man and pays close attention to his footwork. Dante also had one absolutely nasty block that can be found in the espn.com highlights.
  


• Dwayne Anderson dunks the ball with authority. Both of his made fieldgoals tonight were nasty dunks where he slashed down the left side of the lane to receive passes from Corey Fisher and slammed it home. He played 18 minutes and was incredibly active. He had a great play where he basically ripped the ball out of the hands of a LaSalle player under the rim and bounced it to Dante for the flush. He also had a great block where he got way up to reject it at the front of the rim. It'll be interesting to see if he can get some minutes in BE play, I really like the way Jay is using him as an undersized front court player. He brings great energy and is constantly diving on the floor for loose balls.
  


• During the game i had no idea Scottie Reynolds had 19 points. He was shut down early but got it going toward the end of the first and continued to be solid in the 2nd. He took a few too many deep threes and I don't know why he never passes the ball on the break. He finishes them or gets fouled most of the time, regardless I'd like to see him pass the ball in that situation once in a while.


• Shane Clark didnt get many touches but finished a great no look feed by Malcolm Grant, I'm really not sure why he wasnt as involved tonight, but he had another good game rebounding the ball. He uses his length so well to get his hands on rebounds that he has no business getting.
  
• Stokes and Grant didnt get many minutes and looked pretty shaky in the minutes they played. Grant had a nice no look feed to Clark and drained a three ball on the wing. Stokes needs to get his mind together and hit some jumpers or he will see his minutes begin to decline as Big East play begins.

• Overall a good win to continue Villanova's domination of the Big5. Drummond needs to get back ASAP though, the team needs his presence on the boards to be successful in the Big East. Look for Anderson and Pena to see increased minutes until Drummond is healthy.